India’s Canal Expanding Projects 2025-2035:
Implications for Pakistan
Water is one of the most contentious issues between Pakistan and India, and, after the tensions between the two countries in 2025, India suspended its cooperation with Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Meanwhile, the attention was drawn to engineering as India started prioritizing the use of its waters within the country.
The media and the public have been paying much attention to India’s plans for the country’s water resources, including the canal expansion, additional storage construction, modernizing canal irrigation, and inter-basin water transfers. The reports mention a so-called six-canal program; however, the Government has yet to formally unveil the detailed master plan about the six canals. Nonetheless, there is a general understanding that India will strive to maximize its benefits from the waters of the Indus basin by enhancing its storage and conveyance capacities and building additional infrastructure.
While for the moment India’s programs do not pose a direct threat to Pakistan’s water supply, they may disrupt the river system in the longer run and have serious implications for Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower generation.
As per the IWT of 1960, the waters of the Indus river system were divided between the two countries, with India getting the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – while Pakistan received the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers with some limitations on India’s use of these rivers. Meanwhile, the infrastructure in India was inadequate to store or use the waters of the rivers allocated to its’ dominion. As a result, the waters of the western rivers were flowing freely to Pakistan, with some being used for hydropower purposes in India. However, with the new initiatives, India will be able to utilize more of the waters that have been flowing to Pakistan since the IWT came into force.
According to the reports, India will construct additional canal extensions in the Jammu and Kashmir region, Punjab irrigation system modernization, enhance storage facilities, and improve conveyance infrastructure. It will also study the options for inter-basin water transfers and construct new canals to support the needs of the country’s growing population. These programs will take much time and capital investment, and they will not be realized immediately.
Still, the engineering reality is that the flows in the western rivers are too large, and the geology and hydrology of the region are too challenging to transfer all waters to India. Therefore, the focus should be on how additional storage and conveyance facilities in India will impact the timing and volumes of water flowing into Pakistan. Since Pakistan’s agriculture is highly dependent on the Indus basin, which is one of the largest contiguous irrigation systems in the world, reduced flows during the Rabi season will require extra pumping from groundwater to maintain crop yields. This may create additional costs for farmers and impact the production of major crops, including wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane.
Furthermore, hydropower generation in Pakistan is also dependent on the Indus river with the two largest facilities being Tarbela and Mangla dams. With reduced flows in the rivers, except for those regulated by India, the generation capacity of the two facilities will also decrease, and electricity production will be impacted.
The ecosystem of the Indus Delta in Pakistan has already suffered from the reduced freshwater flows as the saltwater intrusion and inappropriate drainage caused severe stress to the mangroves, loss of fish species, and impacted the local fishery industry. With fewer flows into the delta, these challenges will escalate, threatening local biodiversity and water supply.
Furthermore, climate change impacts such as extreme weather conditions, glacier melts, and irregular monsoon seasons will further add to the stress on the river system. While at this moment it is hard to predict how these factors will combine together, the regional realities suggest that collaboration between Pakistan and India on the river management will be of paramount importance. For now, Pakistan should focus on its domestic needs and ensure that its water management practices are sufficient to handle any changes to the current flows from upstream.
This will require massive investments in expanding storage, especially in new dams, and modernizing conveyance and irrigation systems, as well as implementing smart groundwater management and active water use management practices at the federal and local levels. At the foreign affairs level, Pakistan needs to continue to advocate its’ interests within the international law framework, and both countries need to cooperate to ensure that water management practices in both nations are transparent and technically sound.
Thus, the situation with water in Pakistan and India during the next decade is more likely to experience enhanced water use competition rather than abrupt changes brought down by engineering interventions. While the constructions will affect the timing and volumes to some extent, the natural circumstances of one of the largest river systems in Asia will remain the same. For Pakistan, this means that its agriculture and water management practices need to become more adaptive to enhance efficiency and security rather than depending on the exact flows from upstream.
The countries that will be able to manage their river systems and water resources in a cost-effective manner within the changing environmental and geopolitical realities will be best prepared to tackle the emerging circumstances.
Disclaimer:
The author’s arguments rely on information published by international news outlets and engineers. As India moves to advance its water infrastructure projects, the actual scope, timing, and implementation details may differ.
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