India's Canal Push Demands a New Water Strategy for Pakistan

As India's water infrastructure development gathers pace after the 2025 IWT crisis, Pakistan must think strategically and act not just politically.

India's decision to withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in 2025 was one of the most consequential events in the post-1960 era water diplomacy between the two countries. But while the political rhetoric took center stage, an equally interesting if not more important development was unfolding on the ground. India has turned its attention to engineering solutions to enhance its water management capabilities, including building new canals, reservoirs, and other infrastructure.

While the media has focused on India's purported plans for a six-canal project between 2025 and 2035, there is no publicly available master plan that indicates that India has identified six canals. What is known is that India is determined to get the maximum returns from the waters that flow through its territory by building new infrastructure, modernizing its irrigation potential, and enhancing its storage capacities. From an engineering perspective, India's gradual but sure push to increase its water management infrastructure warrants Pakistan's close attention.

For Pakistan, the implications of India's plans are not immediate but nevertheless significant.

Under the IWT, the six rivers have been divided into two groups, with India getting the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan getting the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). The IWT is considered one of the most successful water treaties in the world because it withstood the test of time, including the Indo-Pakistani wars.

However, the IWT was concluded at a time when the demographic, climatic, and technological realities were vastly different from today's. Consequently, the treaty's ability to address current and future challenges is increasingly in question.

For decades, India did not have the infrastructure to fully harness even the rivers that it had been allocated under the IWT. As a result, considerable waters used to flow into Pakistan, particularly during the flood seasons. India is now poised to change this situation by building more canals and associated infrastructure, including balancing reservoirs, to regulate the flows of the rivers in the northern states. This raises several engineering and technical issues for Pakistan to consider.

First and foremost, it is important to distinguish between engineering and political realities. India's plans to divert the waters of the western rivers are not without their challenges, primarily because of the sheer volume of water that would need to be diverted. This cannot be done without incurring huge costs, overcoming geographical and seismic constraints, and adhering to environmental regulations.

The mountainous topography of the region, the seismological activity, and the environmental concerns about the impact of such large-scale interventions on the delicate mountainous ecosystems are considerable impediments to India's plans to fully harness the waters of the western rivers.

As such, it is reasonable to believe that India's ambitions to completely divert the flows of the western rivers are not realistic in the short term. However, what is of greater concern to Pakistan is that India's ability to regulate the flows of the western rivers during the lean seasons is likely to have serious implications for Pakistan's agricultural production and overall economy.

Pakistan's economy remains highly dependent on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), which is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. Over ninety percent of Pakistan's food is produced from the Indus basin, either directly or indirectly. Even a small shortfall in the dry season water supplies can add significantly to the costs of producing food, particularly for water-intensive crops.

The electricity production from hydropower plants also depends on the flows of water in the system. The two largest reservoirs in Pakistan, Tarbela and Mangla, are highly dependent on the flows in the Indus River to ensure a consistent supply of electricity while meeting the needs of the irrigation system.

Furthermore, the reduction in the inflows to the downstream Indus has already had adverse impacts on the Indus delta, including saltwater intrusion, loss of mangrove forests, and a reduction in fish stocks. These ecological problems are only exacerbated by the reduction in freshwater flows.

However, it is also important to note that Pakistan's water challenges are not entirely the result of India's interventions. Pakistan continues to lose enormous volumes of water through seepage in its canal system and outdated irrigation practices. Water productivity in Pakistan is among the lowest in the region, and the overexploitation of groundwater has led to a significant decline in the water table in many areas.

These issues need to be addressed through a combination of improved infrastructure, including the construction of multipurpose reservoirs, and enhanced irrigation practices, such as adopting more efficient irrigation techniques.

At the most basic level, Pakistan needs to undertake a comprehensive overhaul of the IBIS to ensure that it is in a position to respond to India's anticipated interventions. First, Pakistan needs to construct strategically located reservoirs to store water during the wet season and release it during the dry season. Second, Pakistan needs to embark on a program of modernization of its irrigation infrastructure, including the automation of its canal systems. Third, Pakistan needs to invest in more efficient irrigation methods, such as drip and sprinkler irrigation, to conserve water. Fourth, Pakistan needs to develop sustainable groundwater management practices to ensure that groundwater is not overexploited.

Pakistan needs to take urgent steps to enhance its water security in the face of India's growing influence over the waters of the Indus River. This requires a combination of investment in modern infrastructure and enhanced water governance. By investing in multipurpose reservoirs, Pakistan can ensure that it has a reliable source of water during the dry season.

Modernizing the irrigation system will help conserve water while enhancing agricultural productivity. Investing in more efficient irrigation methods will help reduce water waste and ensure that water is used for the most productive purposes. Sustainable groundwater management will help prevent the depletion of groundwater resources, which are a crucial source of freshwater in Pakistan.

Furthermore, Pakistan needs to invest in water research and development to ensure that it has the technical expertise to manage its water resources in the most efficient manner possible. Climate change has made water management more challenging, requiring more dynamic approaches to water management.

At the diplomatic level, Pakistan needs to engage with India to ensure that the concerns of both countries are taken into account in water management decisions. The Indus River is a shared resource, and its management requires a cooperative approach based on technical and scientific considerations.

Pakistan's response to India's 2025 IWT withdrawal should be one of measured pragmatism. The situation should not be allowed to devolve into a diplomatic crisis that overshadows the technical aspects of water management. The 2025 crisis should be a wake-up call for Pakistan to invest in modernizing its water infrastructure and adopting more efficient water management practices.

India's push to enhance its water infrastructure is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Pakistan's water security. However, it is a harbinger of things to come, and Pakistan needs to be prepared to respond to similar challenges in the future. The most important takeaway is that water security in the twenty-first century will be determined not by the treaties of the past but by the engineering and technical solutions of the present and future.