Can India cut off Pakistan's water supply? Separating myths
and engineering facts
India's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance in 2025 is poised to raise an emotive question once again. Can India really turn off the tap of the Indus River?
As televised debates and political rhetoric across the globe suggested, Pakistanis were quick to believe that India had the ability to "turn off the tap". On the other hand, some argued that India is completely incapable of controlling the waters of the Western rivers. Where is the truth?
Why the Indus River System Matters to Pakistan
There is no doubt in anyone's mind that the rivers are the lifeline for Pakistan's agriculture, hydroelectricity, ecological balance, and daily water supply needs. Notably, the Western Rivers are the primary source of water in Pakistan. Thus, the entire nation's survival depends on the uninterrupted flow of water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
However, few people seem to realize one critical fact. These rivers originate from the lofty heights of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Tibet. The immense volumes of water from glaciers, seasonal snow, and monsoon rains determine the flow of these rivers. This natural phenomenon constrains the ability of any upstream riparian to fully control the flow of these rivers.
Myth: Building a Dam Means Controlling the Entire River
A common myth that constructing a dam on the river will enable its complete control is misleading. The critical fact that remains unaccounted for by the proponents of the theory is the fact that the amount of water stored within a dam also determines the extent of its control.
Most of India's dams along the western rivers have a very limited storage capacity for regulation and hydropower purposes. A closer examination of India's infrastructure indicates that its dams primarily serve as run-of-river hydroelectric plants. This implies that a dam's reservoirs only store water that is diverted to hydropower stations through turbines.
These reservoirs typically have a small storage capacity and cannot hold all the water that flows through the dam. They can only store enough to control the opening and closing of gates in order to maintain hydropower operations, facilitate sediment flushing, and manage downstream flows.
How Reservoir Storage Limits Water Control
It is essential to understand the basic operating principles of a dam.
Any dam operator can momentarily store water in a reservoir for irrigation, hydropower generation, or sediment control. It is also possible to operate these reservoirs to temporarily store floodwaters or to store water until downstream reservoirs and channels are ready to receive it.
However, if the reservoir reaches capacity, water must be released downstream, either through the turbines or spillways. This principle dictates that no dam operator can withhold more water than the reservoir's storage capacity allows. The operating principles of the dams along the Indus River become even more evident when considering the summer season.
During this period, glacier melting, snowmelt floods, and monsoon rains add significantly to the flow of the Indus River. It is not uncommon for the flow rates to peak at several times higher than the normal flow rates recorded during the summer. This seasonal phenomenon further limits the ability of any upstream riparian to control the flow of these large rivers.
Future Reservoir Development Could Change the Situation
It is a common misconception that the dams along the Indus River do not have a significant impact on downstream flow bu in reality India's ability to develop additional storage and regulation infrastructure on the Western Rivers could influence the future dynamics of the dispute.
While engineers cannot store enough water to completely cutoff the flow to Pakistan, it is possible to temporarily store water upstream for irrigation, hydropower, or flood control purposes. These dams may also be utilized to regulate the timing of downstream flows for flood control and sediment management purposes. Notably, the operation and regulation of reservoirs on these rivers are conducted with great precision and attention to detail. This is why engineers from both countries have given special attention to the design and operational procedures of the projects on the rivers for the past sixty years.
What the 2025 Developments Mean for Pakistan's Water Security
The recent developments of 2025 further highlight the need for improving water security for the people of Pakistan. In my opinion, the focus should shift towards maximizing agricultural productivity and investing in advanced technologies to reduce conveyance losses in addition to upgrading the canal system in Pakistan. It also appears that India's ability to store additional water in its downstream reservoirs will dictate the future of the dispute.
The engineers on both sides have sufficient expertise to operate these dams with precision in order to store water for hydropower generation, irrigation, and flood control without impacting the flow of water in downstream channels. For now, both countries must continue to rely on their engineering expertise to make informed decisions about the management and utilization of the waters of the Indus River System.
Climate Change Adds a New Layer of Uncertainty
At the same time, climate change has impacted the flow patterns of the river, and the effects will only amplify in the future. This development has significant implications for both upstream and downstream riparians. The Indus River Basin is one of the largest snow-fed river systems in the world. The sheer magnitude of the flow from the Indus River determines the amount of control any country can exercise over another.
It is my view that the engineering aspects of this issue must always dominate the political, diplomatic, and emotive aspects in order to ensure sustainable water security for both countries.
Final Remarks
The events of 2025 will certainly affect the Indus Waters Treaty, but they also provide a sobering lesson to the public at large. Managing a large river system is not the same as managing small water bodies and water sources. Perhaps the greatest fallacy about the Indus Basin dispute is its assumption that the rivers have been controlled solely by the political forces of the region.
It is the natural law and gravity that determines whether the water in these rivers will continue to flow.
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